Archive 2013

• 01.11.2013

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  According to Ukrstat preliminary estimate GDP fell by 1.5% yoy in the third quarter of 2013 reflecting low external demand for key Ukrainian exports, trade disruptions with Russia and large delay in harvesting crops during rainy September.

  Issue:  No.10 (74) October 2013
  Authors:  Kravchuk Vitaliy, Betliy Oleksandra
• 01.10.2013

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  Due to likely trade tensions with Russia, continued recession in the third quarter and absence of expected reforms the IER estimate of real GDP growth in 2013 and 2014 seems to be too optimistic. In particular, if trade pressure by Russia will increase in November, real GDP is likely to decline in 2013 and grow at near 1% in 2014.

  Issue:  No.9 (73) September 2013
  Authors:  Kravchuk Vitaliy, Betliy Oleksandra
• 02.09.2013

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  According to the Government real GDP grew by near 2.4% yoy in July after declining by 1.1% yoy in the first half of the year. Growth was attributed to retail trade growth and sharp increase in agricultural output. These sectors are likely to support growth in the rest of the year.

  Issue:  No.8 (72) August 2013
  Authors:  Kravchuk Vitaliy, Betliy Oleksandra
• 23.07.2013

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – quarterly issue - "Recovery getting further away"

  Economic outlook for Ukraine remains gloomy and may be worse than our previous estimates in March.

  Issue:  No.7 (71) July 2013
  Authors:  Kravchuk Vitaliy, Betliy Oleksandra
• 02.07.2013

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  Real GDP dropped by 1.1% yoy in the first quarter of 2013, which is similar to our expectations, although contributions of components were different. Increase in real gross fixed capital accumulation is likely attributed to one-off investments in the energy sector. At the same time, deceleration of real final private consumption is explained by decrease in food consumption, which is inconsistent with data on food production and imports.

  Issue:  No.6 (70) June 2013
  Authors:  Betliy Oleksandra, Kravchuk Vitaliy
• 04.06.2013

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  Ukrainian economy stagnated in the first half of 2013 but some encouraging signs were observed in April. Overall, real GDP growth may reach 1.4% only under optimistic scenario.

  Issue:  No.5 (69) May 2013
  Authors:  Kravchuk Vitaliy, Betliy Oleksandra
• 30.04.2013

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  Economic activity in Ukraine remained weak in the first quarter despite some bright spots. According to the Ukrstat preliminary estimates real GDP declined by 1.3% yoy in the first quarter of 2013, which is by 0.6 p.p. lower than than we expected.

  Issue:  No.4 (68) April 2013
  Authors:  Kravchuk Vitaliy, Betliy Oleksandra
• 01.04.2013

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – quarterly issue "2014 Recovery"

  Real GDP is expected to grow by 1.4% in 2013. Real private final consumption will remain major driver of economic growth, though its growth will significantly decelerate. In 2014 increase in external demand and improved consumer demand will support real GDP growth at 3.9%. The most important assumption of the forecast is successful negotiations with the IMF resulting in new IMF Program.

  Issue:  No.3 (67) March 2013
  Authors:  Kravchuk Vitaliy, Betliy Oleksandra
• 28.02.2013

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  In the first quarter of 2013 real GDP is expected to decline slightly. For the year the Institute maintains forecast of real GDP growth at 1.3% under baseline scenario.

  Issue:  No.2 (66) February 2013
  Authors:  Kravchuk Vitaliy, Betliy Oleksandra
• 01.02.2013

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  According to ‘flash’ Ukrstat estimates real GDP grew by only 0.2% in 2013 as it declined by 2.7% yoy in the fourth quarter. This supports our expectations of the slow start for 2013.

  Issue:  No.1 (65) January 2013
  Authors:  Betliy Oleksandra, Kravchuk Vitaliy