Archive 2011

• 29.12.2011

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  Meanwhile, we are likely to keep our forecast for real GDP growth at 3.6% in 2012. This estimate is based on the assumptions of stabilisation of debt situation in the EU in the first half of the year and returned confidence in the global economy in the second half of the year.

  Issue:  No.12 (52) December 2011
  Authors:  Kravchuk Vitaliy, Betliy Oleksandra
• 02.12.2011

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – quarterly issue - "On the brink of the abyss"

  Recent months were marked by worsening outlook for global economic growth. In Europe economic sentiment fell to the worst level in two years pointing to the recession in the end of this year, while in other regions growth slowed. At the same time, magnitude of the crisis is by no means certain.

  Issue:  No.11 (51) November 2011
  Authors:  Betliy Oleksandra, Kravchuk Vitaliy
• 01.11.2011

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  According to the preliminary Ukrstat’s estimates real GDP growth accelerated to 6.6% yoy in the third quarter of 2011. It is significantly higher than we expected, what could result in upward revision of forecast of real GDP growth above current 4.6% for the year.

  Issue:  No.10 (50) October 2011
  Authors:  Betliy Oleksandra, Kravchuk Vitaliy
• 30.09.2011

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  The talks about the possibility of another global economic crisis continued. The IMF, the OECD and other forecasters downgraded the forecasts of global economic growth for 2012 and warned about large downward risks.

  Issue:  No.9 (49) September 2011
  Authors:  Kravchuk Vitaliy, Betliy Oleksandra
• 02.09.2011

  Base scenario: new recession is not expected

  The possibility of new recession in advanced economies has been discussed during recent weeks. The US and the EU are facing persistently high unemployment, weak economic growth and unsustainable fiscal deficit, while confidence in government policies fell.

  Issue:  No.8 (48) August 2011
  Authors:  Kravchuk Vitaliy, Betliy Oleksandra
• 29.07.2011

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  The economy in June developed in line with our expectations. Industrial output remained close to figures in May, while retailed trade growth decelerated. For the second half of the year the deceleration of economic development is expected primarily due to statistical base effect.

  Issue:  No.7 (47) July 2011
  Authors:  Kravchuk Vitaliy, Betliy Oleksandra
• 01.07.2011

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  GDP grew by 5.3% yoy in the first quarter. GDP growth in the first quarter was driven by a combination of factors. Fast growth of real exports (at 19.0% yoy) and real private final consumption (at 12.7% yoy ) was largely offset by even faster growth of real imports (39.3% yoy).

  Issue:  No.6 (46) June 2011
  Authors:  Betliy Oleksandra, Kravchuk Vitaliy
• 01.06.2011

  Stable growth urges reforms

  Fundamentals of Ukrainian economy weakened somewhat over the several months hurting medium-term growth prospects. First, Ukraine suspended cooperation with the IMF, and failed to implement several promised reforms...

  Issue:  No.5 (45) May 2011
  Authors:  Kravchuk Vitaliy, Betliy Oleksandra
• 29.04.2011

  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine – monthly issue

  Performance of most sectors in March was in line with our expectations. Real industrial output continued growing while fright turnover and agricultural output accelerated growth.

  Issue:  No.4 (44) April 2011
  Authors:  Kravchuk Vitaliy, Betliy Oleksandra
• 31.03.2011

  External risks are increasing

  Real GDP is estimated to increase by near 6% yoy in the first quarter of 2011. All GDP components improved their performance.

  Issue:  No.3 (43) March 2011
  Authors:  Betliy Oleksandra, Kravchuk Vitaliy