Real GDP is expected to grow at 4.4% in 2010 and 4.6% in 2011. Still, it will not reach the level of 2007.
The MEFU includes the IER’s forecast of the GDP and its components, disposable income and unemployment rate, fiscal indicators, balance of payments, inflation, exchange rate for current and next years. There are 12 issues per year. Quarterly issues (published in January, April, July and October) present new and revised estimates, while monthly issues focus more on recent trends and define the direction of possible forecast revision in the quarterly issue.
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Real GDP is expected to grow at 4.4% in 2010 and 4.6% in 2011. Still, it will not reach the level of 2007.
Fiscal Indicators: Consolidated fiscal deficit might be lower than currently expected 7.3% of GDP in 2010 due to cautious government policy on spending. In particular, the Government might keep some funds attracted in the form of external borrowings for financing expenditures in 2011.
Real GDP growth is estimated to decelerate in the third quarter of 2010 due to higher statistical base and acceleration of imports growth.
Real GDP is expected to grow at 4.3% in 2010 and 4.9% in 2011 with potential for revision of estimates of its components.
Prospects of Ukrainian economy became more uncertain over the last few months. Inflation is likely to return to double digit level by the end of the year.
Households’ real disposable income will increase by 6.3% in 2010 and by 5.8% in 2011. Unemployment rate (ILO) is estimated to decline to 8.3% and 7.2% in 2010 and 2011, respectively.
Households’ real disposable income is expected to increase by 4.8% in 2010 and by 3.2% in 2011. Unemployment rate (ILO) is estimated to gradually decline within forecasting period.
The Institute downgraded its estimate of the real GDP growth to 3.8% in 2010 and 4.8% in 2011.
The Derzhkomstat information proves that economic developments in March were in line with our expectations. The performance of industrial sectors and trade improved.
In April issue of the Forecast, the Institute will provide revised estimates of real GDP growth taking into account new policy decisions of the Government and most recent statistical information.