GDP: Recent economic developments in Ukraine and in the world were in line with the assumptions and expectations embedded in the previous issue of the IER forecast. Therefore, we preserved the estimate of real GDP contraction at 12.0% for 2009, but somewhat changed the GDP composition adjusting it to newly released statistics. The real GDP is forecast to grow by 5.3% in 2010 against the background of very low statistical base.
Risk Scenario: Under risk scenario the real GDP will decline by 14.3% in 2009 and demonstrate slower growth at 3.1% in 2010. Also, in this case a devaluation of hryvnia will be stronger in 2009 and persist in 2010.
