Archive 2009

• Ukraine at the crossroads

  14.05.2009
  Free

  GDP: According to the base scenario, the real final consumption, fixed capital accumulation, as well as external demand for Ukrainian products are very weak in 2009. As a result, real GDP is estimated to decline by 13.7%. The real GDP is forecasted to grow by 3.6% in 2010 against the background of very low statistical base.

  Issue:  No.5 (21) May 2009
  Forecasting period:  2009 - 2010
  Pessimistic scenario:  Later than assumed global economy recovery will further suppress demand for Ukrainian exports and restrain access to foreign capital. As a result, under risk scenario the real GDP will drop by 16.9% in 2009 and further decline by 2.2% in 2010.
  Optimistic scenario:  In case of faster recovery of Ukrainian economic agents’ activity, the real GDP is expected to decline by 11.9% in 2009 and grow by 6.9% in 2010.
  Reviewer:  Burakovsky Igor
  Attached file  (160.9 kb)
  Authors:  Kravchuk Vitaliy, Naumenko Dmytro, Kobylyanska Alla, Betliy Oleksandra, Возняк Роман
  Tags:  Center of economic research, Macroeconomic prognosis
  Research spheres:  Macroeconomics