Archive 2009

• Has Ukraine passed the bottom?

  04.08.2009
  Free

  GDP: We kept our estimate of real GDP contraction at 14.1% in 2009. The real GDP is forecasted to grow by 3.9% in 2010 against the background of very low statistical base.

  Issue:  No.8 (24) August 2009
  Forecasting period:  2010
  Pessimistic scenario:  Later than assumed recovery of global economy will further suppress demand for Ukrainian exports and restrain access to foreign capital. As a result, under risk scenario the real GDP will drop by 17.0% in 2009 and grow by mere 0.6% in 2010.
  Optimistic scenario:  In case of faster recovery of the economic activity in Ukraine, the real GDP is expected to decline by 12.6% in 2009 and grow by 8.5% in 2010.
  Reviewer:  Burakovsky Igor
  Attached file  (148.5 kb)
  Authors:  Kravchuk Vitaliy, Furmanets Kateryna, Naumenko Dmytro, Kobylyanska Alla, Betliy Oleksandra, Возняк Роман
  Tags:  Center of economic research, Macroeconomic prognosis
  Research spheres:  Macroeconomics