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Archive 2009

  • Has Ukraine passed the bottom?

    04.08.2009
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    GDP: We kept our estimate of real GDP contraction at 14.1% in 2009. The real GDP is forecasted to grow by 3.9% in 2010 against the background of very low statistical base.

    Issue:  No.8 (24) August 2009
    Forecasting period:  2010
    Pessimistic scenario:  Later than assumed recovery of global economy will further suppress demand for Ukrainian exports and restrain access to foreign capital. As a result, under risk scenario the real GDP will drop by 17.0% in 2009 and grow by mere 0.6% in 2010.
    Optimistic scenario:  In case of faster recovery of the economic activity in Ukraine, the real GDP is expected to decline by 12.6% in 2009 and grow by 8.5% in 2010.
    Reviewer:  Burakovsky Igor
    Attached file  (148.5 kb)
    Research spheres:  Macroeconomics

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