2010: Slow revival, but nothing exceptional
GDP: The Institute forecasts the real GDP growth at 3.4% in 2010. The growth is mainly explained by statistical base effect.
Disposable Incomes and Unemployment: Households’ real disposable incomes will increase by 1.0% next year. Unemployment rate (ILO methodology) is estimated at 8.8% in 2010.
Fiscal Indicators: The fiscal pressure will remain high in 2010. The Government will be faced the necessity to streamline social spending. The fiscal deficit is estimated at 3.8% of GDP in 2010, not taking into account funds required for banks’ recapitalization.
Balance of Payments: The current account will be in deficit at 1.1% of GDP in 2010. Substantial net outflows of other investments will result in financial account deficit.
Monetary Survey: Money supply in 2010 will rapidly increase. The official exchange rate will be on average at UAH/USD 8.17. The consumer price inflation is expected to remain high.
