Archive 2008

  • Doom and gloom: is there something to it?


    GDP: The real GDP growth is estimated at 5.9% yoy in 2008 backed by still strong though decelerating real private final consumption expansion. For 2009 the real GDP growth is forecasted to slow down to 2.7% yoy of GDP.

    Fiscal Indicators: The consolidated fiscal revenues are estimated at 30.8% of GDP and 30.3% of GDP in 2008 and 2009, respectively. The Government will run zero deficit in both years due to the scarce financing.

    Balance of Payment: The current account deficit is expected to widen to 6.8% of GDP and 9.3% of GDP in 2008 and 2009, respectively. In 2008 it will be covered by the financial account surplus. In 2009 major part of current account deficit will be financed at the expense of the international reserves of the NBU and the IMF loan.
    Monetary Survey and Inflation: The money supply is estimated to slow down to 30.6% yoy in 2008 with further deceleration to 15.9% yoy in 2009. The consumer price inflation will reach 25.2% as annual average in 2008 and considerably decelerate to 11.4% in 2009.

    Issue:  Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine (No.2 (14) October 2008)
    Forecasting period:  2008 - 2009

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