Archive 2008

  • Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine No.3 (15)


    The real GDP growth in 2008 is estimated to decelerate to 3.5% compared to mid-year growth rates due to decline in industry.

    In 2009 the real GDP will drop by 4.3% for the first time since 1999 due to the reduction in domestic demand.

    The consolidated fiscal expenditures will decline relative to GDP during the forecast period.

    The consolidated fiscal budget will be balanced in 2008 and 2009.

    The current account deficit is estimated at 6.1% of GDP in 2008, mostly covered by the financial account surplus.

    In 2009 the current account deficit at 3.1% of GDP will be financed by the NBU international reserves and the IMF loan.

    The money supply growth is estimated to decelerate to 28.9% in 2008 with further slowdown to 7.6% in 2009.

    The CPI growth will reach 25.4% as annual average in 2008 and will slow to 16.4% in 2009.

    In 2009 average exchange rate will be at 6.3 UAH/USD.

    Issue:  No.3 (15) November 2008
    Forecasting period:  2009

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