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  • Hard landing scenario in 2009

    06.12.2008
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    GDP: The real GDP growth will decelerate to 1.4% in 2008 as both domestic and external demand tumbled. For 2009 the real GDP is forecasted to decline by 6.2%.

    Fiscal indicators: The consolidated fiscal revenues are estimated at 30.1% of GDP in 2008 plummeting to 26.7% of GDP next year. Due to high recurrent fiscal spending the Government will have to run consolidated fiscal deficit at 1.9% in 2009.

    Balance of payment: The current account deficit is expected to widen to 6.7% of GDP in 2008, but shrink to 2.1% of GDP in 2009. In 2009 the financial account balance will be negative at USD 9.6 bn. Both deficits will be financed at the expense of the international reserves of the NBU and the IMF loan.

    Monetary survey and inflation: The money supply is estimated to decelerate to 11.0% yoy in 2009. The consumer price inflation will reach 25.2% as annual average in 2008 and remain high at 20.3% in 2009.

    Issue:  No.4 (16) December 2008
    Forecasting period:  2008 - 2009
    Reviewer:  Movchan Veronika
    Attached file  (113.8 kb)

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