Archive 2003

  • Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine No.2 (3)


    The real GDP is forecast to grow by 5.6% in 2003, and by 5.4% in 2004.

    While the year 2003 is marked by high investment, the year 2004 is expected to be a year of private consumption.

    Implementation of tax reform is expected to stimulate private consumption, while hurting state consumption due to lower fiscal revenues in 2004.

    Improvement in investment climate and financial sources encourage investments in 2003, while political uncertainty may hamper them in 2004.

    Although imports grow faster than exports, the forecast balance of goods and services remains positive.

    The poor grain harvest leads to negative growth in agriculture in 2003, significantly reducing the overall economic growth.

    High growth rates in construction reflect increases in investment demand in 2003.

    Inflation will reach 7% in 2003, but should decelerate in 2004.

    Issue:  2 (3) September 2003
    Attached file  (141.6 kb)

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