Archive 2003

  • Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine No.3 (4)


    The real GDP is forecast to grow by 7.9% in 2003, and by 6.2% in 2004.

    While the year 2003 is marked by high investment and state consumption, the year 2004 is expected to be a year of private consumption.

    Implementation of tax reform is expected to stimulate private consumption, while hurting state consumption due to lower real fiscal revenues in 2004.

    Although imports grow faster than exports, the forecast balance of goods and services remains positive.

    The value added in agriculture reduced in 2003 due to a poor grain harvest, but is expected to pick up in 2004.

    A high growth rate was observed in construction in 2003, but is expected to slow next year.

    Inflation will reach 8% in 2003, and will not significantly decelerate in 2004.

    Issue:  No. 3 (4) December 2003
    Forecasting period:  2003 - 2004
    Attached file  (192.4 kb)

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