Macroeconomic forecast

• 2010: Slow revival, but nothing exceptional

  13.12.2009
  Free

  2010: Slow revival, but nothing exceptional

  GDP: The Institute forecasts the real GDP growth at 3.4% in 2010. The growth is mainly explained by statistical base effect.

  Disposable Incomes and Unemployment: Households’ real disposable incomes will increase by 1.0% next year. Unemployment rate (ILO methodology) is estimated at 8.8% in 2010.

  Fiscal Indicators: The fiscal pressure will remain high in 2010. The Government will be faced the necessity to streamline social spending. The fiscal deficit is estimated at 3.8% of GDP in 2010, not taking into account funds required for banks’ recapitalization.

  Balance of Payments: The current account will be in deficit at 1.1% of GDP in 2010. Substantial net outflows of other investments will result in financial account deficit.

  Monetary Survey: Money supply in 2010 will rapidly increase. The official exchange rate will be on average at UAH/USD 8.17. The consumer price inflation is expected to remain high.

  Issue:  No.12 (28) December 2009
  Forecasting period:  2010
  Pessimistic scenario:  Later than assumed recovery of global economy and increased political pressure remain the major risks for economic development in Ukraine. Under pessimistic scenario the real GDP will decline by 0.2% in 2010.
  Optimistic scenario:  In case of faster recovery of the economic activity in Ukraine the real GDP is estimated to grow by 5.2% in 2010.
  Reviewer:  Movchan Veronika
  Attached file  (110.5 kb)
  Authors:  Furmanets Kateryna, Naumenko Dmytro, Kobylyanska Alla, Betliy Oleksandra, Kravchuk Vitaliy
  Tags:  Center of economic research, Macroeconomic prognosis
  Research spheres:  Macroeconomics