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Macroeconomic forecast

 


The MEFU includes the IER’s forecast of the GDP and its components, disposable income and unemployment rate, fiscal indicators, balance of payments, inflation, exchange rate for current and next years. There are 12 issues per year. Quarterly issues (published in January, April, July and October) present new and revised estimates, while monthly issues focus more on recent trends and define the direction of possible forecast revision in the quarterly issue.

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  • 08.03.2017

    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Recovery continues

    The economic growth in 2017 will be again supported by the increase in domestic demand. Sharp increase in minimum wage is expected to contribute to higher real private final consumption. It will somewhat restricted the investment growth. Larger domestic demand will stimulate imports growth. Exports growth will be limited by weak external demand and logistic problems. According to the IER baseline scenario, real GDP in 2017 is projected to grow by 2.8%. If disruption of economic relations with the occupied part of the Donbas continues we might downgrade our projections
    Issue:  No.1-2 (111), January-February 2017
  • 10.01.2017

    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Gradual recovery is projected to ramp up in 2018

    Real GDP is estimated to grow by 1.4% in 2016 due to domestic demand growth. Purchasing power of Ukrainians increased primarily due to higher wage income as wages started to catch up with inflation observed in 2014 and 2015.
    Issue:  №11-12 (110) November-December 2016
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