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  • 03.04.2020

    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - oronacrisis (April, 2020)

    We expect substantial damage to the economy from domestic restrictions and lower external demand. A gradual recovery is expected in the second half of 2020, but economic activity will remain lower than the pre-crisis level. We project real GDP to fall by 5.9% in 2020. Consumer inflation is forecasted to accelerate only to 7.5% yoy in December as weak demand will limit the impact of higher inflation expectations and weaker hryvnia. We used UAH 28.7 per USD as an average 2020 exchange rate in forecast calculations.
    Category:  Forecast
  • 21.07.2019

    Quarterly Enterprise Survey (Q1, 2019)

    This issue presents the results of the survey conducted from April till May, 2019
  • 08.03.2017

    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Recovery continues

    The economic growth in 2017 will be again supported by the increase in domestic demand. Sharp increase in minimum wage is expected to contribute to higher real private final consumption. It will somewhat restricted the investment growth. Larger domestic demand will stimulate imports growth. Exports growth will be limited by weak external demand and logistic problems. According to the IER baseline scenario, real GDP in 2017 is projected to grow by 2.8%. If disruption of economic relations with the occupied part of the Donbas continues we might downgrade our projections
    Category:  Forecast
  • 10.01.2017

    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Gradual recovery is projected to ramp up in 2018

    Real GDP is estimated to grow by 1.4% in 2016 due to domestic demand growth. Purchasing power of Ukrainians increased primarily due to higher wage income as wages started to catch up with inflation observed in 2014 and 2015.
    Category:  Forecast
  • 10.11.2016

    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Recovery is real

    Real GDP is estimated to grow at 1.1% in 2016 due to increase in domestic demand. Real net exports is expected to make a negative contribution to economic growth as imports starts growing this year. We do not expect any shocks materialising by the end of this year.
    Category:  Forecast
  • 07.10.2016

    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Recovery goes on despite global gloom

    Economy of Ukraine is projected to return to growth in 2016. The recovery will be slow but it is expected to continue despite external and internal risks to growth. Economic growth prospects are becoming lower in China as well as the EU. Domestic risks are also high including escalation of the war in the East of Ukraine as well as delays or termination of reforms.
    Category:  Forecast
  • 05.09.2016

    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Slow way to recovery

    Economic activity in the first half of 2016 real GDP increased by 0.8% yoy, which was lower than we expected. This is primarily related to the Russias policies to ban Ukrainian imports and restrict transit of Ukrainian goods through its territory as well as logistical disruption in Donbas.
    Category:  Forecast
  • 22.08.2016

    Year 2015: Economic Summary for Ukraine "Many challenges but some wins as well"

    2015 was a year of many wins and losses for Ukraine. The year started with a big escalation of military conflict in the East of the country, which pushed economy to a larger recession than previously expected. Fragile macroeconomic stabilisation was reached in the third quarter of 2015. The Government has finally started implementing long delayed and necessary reforms.

  • 01.08.2016

    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Positive signs emerge

    Economic activity in the first half of 2016 increased as compared to the first half of 2015, but was lower than expected. This to large degree reflected difficulties in moving products and inputs to their customers. We project that economic activity will increase in the remainder of 2016 as logistical problems reduce and external conditions improve. Thus, we will likely keep our forecast of GDP growth in 2016.
    Category:  Forecast
  • 03.07.2016

    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine - Slowly to recovery

    For 2017, we will likely maintain key elements of our forecast. Consumer demand will be supported by less restrictive social policy including increases in pensions and welfare payments. Real GDP is forecasted to grow by 3.3%.
    Category:  Forecast
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