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Огляд та прогноз податкових надходжень

  • 05.05.2007

    Tax Revenue Outlook for Ukraine No.1 (5)

    The period to which the poll:  2007 and 2008
    Poll period:  May 2007

    Enterprise profits tax (EPT) revenues are the second most important source of consolidated fiscal revenues after the VAT. In 2006 the EPT revenues amounted to UAH 25.7 bn (4.8% of GDP). Being under-executed during the most of the year, the execution of EPT revenues reached 100.2% of the target in 2006 due to good collection rates in November and December. Such change could be explained by improved economic performance of enterprises as well as better tax administration in the end of the year. In 2007 the government plans to get UAH 28.5 bn from the EPT, assuming that the real GDP will increase by 6.5%. The IER estimation of the macroeconomic situation is more optimistic and assumes 7.6% GDP growth rate in 2007. The situation at the main Ukrainian export markets is expected to be favourable. Also, after a slowdown in 2006, nominal profits are expected to grow faster. In addition, tax administration improved in the second half of 2006 is expected to continue influencing tax collection this year. As a result, the IER estimates the nominal EPT revenues at UAH 30.0 bn (4.6% of GDP) in 2007. It is UAH 1.9 above the government plan.

    Authors:  Furmanets Kateryna, Naumenko Dmytro, Betliy Oleksandra, Джуччі Рікардо
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