Archive 2013

• 29.11.2013

  Impact assessment of a possible change in Russia’s trade regime vis-a-vis Ukraine

  (Code:PB_04_2013)
  • Russia might change its trade regime vis-a-vis Ukraine from the current free trade regime to Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) status
  • In such a case, Russian average import tariffs for Ukrainian goods would increase from 0% to 10.6%
  • As a result, based on data from 2010-2012, Ukrainian exports to Russia would decrease by 17% or USD 3.0 bn per year 
  • The decrease in exports to Russia would have a negative short-term impact on Ukraine, amounting to 1.7% of annual GDP
  • The most affected product groups would be:

  –Minerals

  –Based metals

  –Transport equipment

  –Machinery

  –Finished foods

  • Thus: The impact on the Ukrainian economy would be significant 
  Attached file  (340.3 kb)
  Authors:  Ryzhenkov Mykola, Movchan Veronika, Ricardo Giucci
  Tags:  German Advisory Group