- Russia might change its trade regime vis-a-vis Ukraine from the current free trade regime to Most-Favoured-Nation (MFN) status
- In such a case, Russian average import tariffs for Ukrainian goods would increase from 0% to 10.6%
- As a result, based on data from 2010-2012, Ukrainian exports to Russia would decrease by 17% or USD 3.0 bn per year
- The decrease in exports to Russia would have a negative short-term impact on Ukraine, amounting to 1.7% of annual GDP
- The most affected product groups would be:
–Minerals
–Based metals
–Transport equipment
–Machinery
–Finished foods
- Thus: The impact on the Ukrainian economy would be significant
