Policy Briefing Series

• 03.10.2014

  Can Ukraine secure enough gas for the winter? A scenario analysis. September update

  (Code:PB_11_2014)
  • Whether Ukraine will be able to get over the winter depends on gas consumption and amount of reverse flows
  • Demand has to be at least 20% below 2013 values and some imports from Slovakia are crucial
  • Otherwise, Ukraine will have to re-start imports from Russia in the second half of January 2015 in order to avoid a short-fall at the end of the winter
  • An interruption in gas transits would reduce the ability and willingness of the western neighbours to provide reverse flows and is thus not in the interest of Ukraine
  Attached file  (460.3 kb)
  Authors:  Georg Zachmann
  Tags:  German Advisory Group