It is a common product of German Advisory Group on Economic Reforms in Ukraine and Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting. Its goal is a quick analysis and provision policy recommendations for Ukrainian policy makers. The papers are available for policy makers and – with some time lag – for general public.
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Ukraine faces immense economic and political challenges. Significant twin deficits in the current and fiscal accounts and significant FX debt repayments come at a time when the access to foreign capital markets is restricted, and FX reserves are at multi-year lows, significantly below any commonly accepted reserve coverage ratio. In this situation, external financial support is clearly needed, and the current negotiations with the IMF is the right approach. During program discussions, the issue of a possible public debt restructuring via private sector involvement (PSI) could become an issue. A crucial aspect in this respect is the right diagnosis: Does Ukraine suffer from a liquidity and/or a solvency problem? Difficult to clearly separate both issues; to some extent also intertwined. This policy briefing attempts to contribute to the current discussion
Comparison of access to external finance by industrial companies under two scenarios