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  • 06.10.2014

    Can Ukraine secure enough gas for the winter? A scenario analysis

    (Code:TN_05_2014)

    In June 2014 Russia stopped gas exports to Ukraine. Russian gas covered about half of Ukraine’s gas consumption in previous years and during winter demand is about three times higher than in summer. Consequently, without substantial action Ukraine will not be able to cover its gas demand this winter. To ensure adequate supplies Ukraine seeks to reduce gas demand and increase gas imports from the west (‘reverse flows’).

    Based on a scenario analysis we find that Ukraine can only get over the winter without Russian gas when demand is reduced by at least 20% and reverse flows from Slovakia are inaugurated. If one of these two conditions is not met, then storages would run below critical levels in early 2015. The only way to avoid a shortfall of gas in this case would involve resuming imports from Russia several weeks before the storage runs empty.

     

    Simulation Results – When would Ukraine need to resume importing 100 mcm/d from Russia to get over the winter2014/15?

      0% demand reduction 20% demand reduction
    No reverse flows (0 mcm/d) 09.11.2014 25.01.2015
    100% from HU and PL and 50% of interruptible capacity from SK (25.3 mcm/d - 38.3 mcm/d) 19.01.2015 No need for Russian gas
    100% from HU, PL and SK (38.3 mcm/d) 29.01.2015 No need for Russian gas
    Authors:  Georg Zachmann
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