• 01.11.2009

    Did the Managers' Expectations Predict the Economic Crisis in Ukraine?

    The question either the managers’ expectations describe and predict main economic tendency in Ukraine is important question for the economic policy in the country. Nevertheless when we deal with particular country it is necessary to get sufficient evidence of relationship between Business Tendency Survey data and quantitative data of the official statistic. The information about business’s perceptions of their environment became of key importance in the times of change in economic tendencies. The international financial crisis of 2008 is just the such period in economic development of the world. The crisis and next deceleration of world economy have to led a sharp recession of Ukrainian economy in 2009 .

    In Ukraine the Quarterly Enterprise Survey is the oldest survey belongs to the group of Business Tendency Surveys which has been originally launched in 1996. It covers the period of economic recession (till 1999) and next economic growth (from 2000 till now). In order to evaluate the quality of businessman’s prediction and as results to find out either the data received from the Ukrainian survey is close to economic tendencies it is necessary to compare the data received from the survey with quantitative data of the official statistics.

    In the paper the relationship of the indicators received from Business Tendency Survey to published statistical macroeconomic indicators is analyzed. Comparison is done for all period of observations (from 1998 to 2009) with special attention on 2008-2009 crisis period. Also the description of the dynamic of survey’s variable before deterioration of macroeconomic indicators and during the recession in 2009 has shown.

    Journal/Conference:  Workshop, Budapest, November 2009
    Attached file  (101.8 kb)
    Authors:  Kuziakiv Oksana
    Research spheres:  Business trends
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