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  • 01.10.2008

    Do the Managers' Expectations Predict Main Economic Tendencies in Ukraine?

    The information about business’s perceptions of their environment is of key importance for policy makers. It is mostly due to they have become a valuable tool for economic analysis and forecasting. Nevertheless when we deal with particular country it is necessary to get sufficient evidence of relationship between Business Tendency Survey data and quantitative data of the official statistic. In Ukraine the Quarterly Enterprise Survey is the oldest survey belongs to the group of Business Tendency Surveys which has been originally launched in 1996. It covers the period of economic recession (till 1999) and next economic growth (from 2000 till now). By now day there are enough data set collected to try answering question either the managers’ expectations describe and predict main economic tendency in Ukraine. It is important question for the economic policy in the country. In order to evaluate the quality of businessman’s prediction and as results to find out either the data received from the Ukrainian survey is close to economic tendencies it is necessary to compare the data received from the survey with quantitative data of the official statistics. In the paper the relationship of the indicators received from Business Tendency survey to published statistical macroeconomic indicators is analyzed. Comparison is done for all period of observations (from 1996 to 2007) as well as separately for period of economic recession (1996-1999) and two periods of economic growth — before and after “orange revolution” (respectively 2000-2004, 2005-2007).

    Journal/Conference:  29th CIRET Conference, Santiago, October 2008
    Attached file  (142.8 kb)
    Authors:  Kuziakiv Oksana
    Research spheres:  Business trends
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