Projects

• Impact of the EU-Ukraine DCFTA on different categories of households: a CGE micro-modeling

  (Code:2013)
  Objective: 

  The aim of the project is to estimate the impact of the establishment of the DCFTA with the EU in the framework of the Association Agreement on Ukraine’s economy and to facilitate public discussion regarding economic consequences of the Association Agreement. The assessment will be made both on macro level and on the level of various categories of households using a CGE micro-simulation.

  Task:

  • To update the quantitative analysis of the impact of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA ) between Ukraine and the EU on the basis of a new social accounting matrix and official information regarding the arrangements for changes in import and export duties and assessments of changes in non-tariff measures by calculating ad valorem equivalents of non-tariff measures;
  • To assess the distributional effects of the DCFTA, calculate the impact of changes in the trade regime for different categories of the population, divided by the level of income, level of education, residence, employment, etc. using micro –simulation approach using the CGE model for Ukraine and information on households received by the State Statistics Service during the household survey;
  • To facilitate public discussion of the results of quantitative analysis supplementing the qualitative analysis of the economic provisions of the Association Agreement conducted by the IER;
  • To organize professional discussion of methods and results of quantitative analysis in several educational institutions of Ukraine to facilitate the formation of professional community, which is able to perform similar studies and consciously advocate economic policies aimed at European integration of Ukraine ;
  • To advocate necessity to sign the Association Agreement;
  • To participate in the activities of other organizations that will take place during the project and that will have a tangent subject, in particular in events supported by IMF, as well as events in the post- project period;
  • To develop recommendations for future public campaign aimed at better understanding the benefits and risks of economic agreements for the groups that will extend the formation of a stable social majority that would knowingly support a European country selection.
  Results:

  The project results will include unique quantitative analysis of the impact of DCFTA between Ukraine and the EU on various categories of the population through micro-simulation; updated quantitative estimates  signature DCFTA impact on the economy, increased quality of public and professional debate on these issues, conducted a broad and systematic informing of media about the quantitative implications of the DCFTA

  Products: 

  • Igor Burakovsky "Impact Assessment of the association as an instrument of economic policy" (UA) 27 November 2014
  • Veronika Movchan "Long-term effects of the Association Agreement: an analysis using applied general equilibrium model" (UA) 27 November 2014
  • Mykola Ryzhenkov "Short-term effects of the Association Agreement: an analysis using partial equilibrium" (UA) 27 November 2014
  • Veronika Movchan "Long-term consequences of Association Agreement:analysis with the CGE model for Ukraine" 

  Public events:

  • Press Conference: "The economic consequences of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU", 16 September, 2014
  • Round Table: “Impact of the Assessment of the Association as an instrument of economic policy” 27 November 2014
  Period: 

  12.2013 – 04.2014

  Contact: 

  Veronika Movchan

  Academic Director

  e-mail: movchan@ier.kiev.ua

  Phone: +38 044 278 63 42

  Customer: 

  International Renaissance Foundation