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Projects

  • Forecasting migration between the EU, V4 and Eastern Europe: impact of visa abolition

    (Code:2013_12)
    Objective: 

    The project is aimed at examination of migration patterns in Eastern European states bordering the EU ( Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus) in the perspective of expected emigration to the EU (with particular emphasis on emigration to V4) after possible visa abolition. It focuses on qualitative and quantitative estimation of migration stocks of Eastern European states to the EU and V4 in the forthcoming 10 years. Research of that kind has never been conducted with regard to Eastern Partnership states.

    Task:
    • Thorough analysis of emigration flows from Ukraine
    • Estimates of possible impact of visa liberalization on migration flows from Ukraine to the EU on the basis of specially elaborated model
    • Increase in quality of public debate on migration policy of Ukraine at the level of Ukrainian experts and politicians with the use of expertise of analytical centers of V4 countries.

    The main questions to be answered during project implementation are following:

    1. How will the migration dynamics between Eastern Europe and the EU possibly change in ten-years rspective?
    2. What could be the role of Visegrad states in these migration movements?
    3. Could EU decision to abolish visas increase Eastern European migration stocks and flows in the EU?
    4. What could be the possible influence of EU labour markets opening on the size and directions of discussed migration stocks?
    5. Does a direct long-term link between migration stocks and demographic variables (total population growth and age structure) as well economic variables (GDP per capita and unemployment rate) exist in an examined case?
    6. What is the significance of political factors (eventual political-economic break down, possible armed conflict, progress in integration with Russia) for EU/V4-Eastern European migration flows?
    Results:
    • Analytical report, which includes quality and quantitative estimates of future emigration flows from Ukraine to the EU
    Products: 

    Analytical reports on the project results 

    Period: 

    06.2013 – 05.2014

    Contact: 

    Oleksandra Betliy

    Leading research fellow/Project coordinator

    e-mail: betliy@ier.kiev.ua

    phone: +38 044 278 63 42

    Partners: 

    Centre of Eastern Studies (Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich), Warsaw; Project’s partners: Research Centre of the Slovak Foreign Policy (Bratislava), Faculty of Science, Charles University (Prague); Hungarian Institute of International Affairs (Budapest); Institute for Economic Research and Political Consulting (Kyiv); Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (Minsk); Institute for Development and Social Initiatives (IDIS) „Viitorul” (Chisinau).

    Donor organizations:

    Visegrad Fund

     

    International Renaissance Foundation

    Main partners are:

     

    Centre of Eastern Studies (Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich), Warsaw;

    Project’s partners:

     

    Research Centre of the Slovak Foreign Policy (Bratislava),

    Geographic Migration Center - GEOMIGRACE


    Centre of Migration Research Foundation

     

    Faculty of Science, Charles University (Prague);

     

    Hungarian Institute of International Affairs (Budapest);

     

    Institute for Economic Research and Political Consulting (Kyiv);

     

    Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (Minsk);

     

    Institute for Development and Social Initiatives (IDIS) „Viitorul” (Chisinau)

    Customer: 

    International Visegrad Fund

     

    (this project is co-financed by the International Renaissance Foundation, which supported the project “Migration between Ukraine and the EU: impact assessment of visa abolition”)

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