- The labor shortage is the undisputed leader among business problems: 64% of enterprises complain about a lack of workers due to mobilization and migration.
- In February, rising prices for raw materials moved to second place among obstacles — 43%.
- Fear of danger is felt by 42% of businesses, and the problem of power supply interruptions by 41% of respondents.
In February, there were noticeable changes in the ranking of the main obstacles to doing business in wartime. The labor shortage maintained its leadership, but rising prices for raw materials, materials, and goods moved to second place, while concerns about labor safety and interruptions in electricity, water, or heat supply affected slightly smaller shares of businesses. This is evidenced by the results of the 46th monthly survey conducted by the IER among 492 industrial enterprises in the third decade of February.
The lack of labor force traditionally holds the first place among the largest obstacles: in February, 64% of respondents pointed to this problem compared to 60% in January.
"For the last year and a half, 60–65% of enterprises have consistently reported a shortage of workers. During this period, the indicator very rarely dropped below 60%. That is why the problem of labor shortage invariably remains among the top main obstacles for business," noted IER Senior Research Fellow Yevhen Anhel.
In February, 51.4% of enterprises reported growing problems in finding qualified workers, and 30.8% reported problems with unskilled ones. At the same time, only 16.7% of enterprises expect an increase in the number of employees.
The obstacle "rising prices for raw materials, materials, and goods" rose to second place
"Although the problem of rising prices moved to the second step and business expects a further price increase, in absolute terms, the number of reports about this problem decreased by 2 percentage points — to 43%," told Yevhen Anhel.
The problem "it is dangerous to work" dropped to the third step: in February, it was named by 42% of enterprises compared to 54% in January.
"This is actually the lowest indicator since the end of 2023. Likely, the perception of war risks was influenced by the fact that the survey was conducted in the second half of February, when business could assess the security situation less pessimistically than at the beginning of winter," explained Yevhen Anhel.
At the same time, this obstacle remains particularly acute for large enterprises, which are often large-scale infrastructure facilities, as well as for businesses in frontline and central regions, particularly in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia.
The problem of danger by region
"Interruptions with electricity, water, or heat supply" also dropped in the ranking in February: 41% of enterprises complained about them after 48% in January. This indicator returned to the levels of November–December, when 42–43% declared the problem.
"January became the most difficult winter month for business due to energy supply problems," emphasized Yevhen Anhel. "However, overall, business assessed the interruptions this winter as less critical than during previous waves of massive shelling. For example, in the winter of 2022–2023, almost 80% reported this obstacle".
Detailed data for the previous full month show that in January, only 7% of enterprises did not encounter power outages. At the same time, the share of those who were able to work continuously despite blackouts grew: in January, there were 41% such compared to 35% in December. Another 28% of enterprises lost 1–10% of working time due to outages, 15% lost 11–25% of time, 7% from 26% to 50%, and 2% lost more than half of working time or did not work at all. The average loss of working time in January was 9% compared to 10% in December. The largest losses were recorded in the Dnipropetrovsk region (37%), Khmelnytskyi region (24%), Chernihiv and Sumy regions (19% each), as well as Zhytomyr region (18%). Among enterprises of different sizes, micro-business suffered the most, not working 14% of its working time, while medium enterprises lost 9%, and large ones — 5%.
"In terms of industries, the largest losses of working time for the second month in a row were observed in metallurgy and metalworking — 16%. In woodworking, this indicator was significantly lower — about 4%, which may be explained by the regional specifics of the location of enterprises in this industry," noted Yevhen Anhel.
Regarding other obstacles: in February, business began to more often state a "decrease in demand for products/services" (the indicator grew from 21% to 29%). The relevance of the problem "difficulties with transporting raw materials or finished products through the territory of Ukraine" also grew to 23%, indicating the persistence of logistical difficulties. Conversely, "corruption" and "unlawful demands or pressure from law enforcement or regulatory authorities" remain at the very bottom of the obstacles — 3% of responses each.
Assessments of the government's economic policy in February almost did not change. The share of positive reviews grew to 6% after 4% in January, neutral ones were 60%, and negative ones were 28% after 29% a month earlier. Despite the slight improvement, negative assessments continue to significantly prevail.
"If we look at the balance of positive and negative assessments, it remains pessimistic. The gap between them, which began to increase back in 2023, persists now," concluded Yevhen Anhel.
Negative assessments of economic policy continue to prevail over positive ones
Up to 500 Ukrainian industrial enterprises located in 21 of the 27 regions of Ukraine participate in the New Monthly Enterprises Survey (#NRES) from the IER. The survey has been conducted on a monthly basis since May 2022. The surveys take place within the framework of the project "Integration of Ukraine into the EU: Dialogue Built on Facts" with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation.
Video of the February survey results presentation –https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-SdJNFhO2g
All previous surveys since July 2022 –http://www.ier.com.ua/en/proekt_dilova_dumka/NRES_Presentations
