Executive Summary
• According to the Ukrstat, real GDP grew by 3.0% yoy in Q4 2025, implying real GDP growth of around 1.8% for the year as a whole. This is close to our estimates.
• According to the IER estimate, real GDP declined by 1.4% yoy in January 2026 due to Russian strikes on the energy sector.
• On January 31, an accident on the lines connecting the power systems of Ukraine and Moldova caused cascading outages in the electricity networks of both Ukraine and Moldova.
• In January, Ukraine reached a record monthly volume of electricity imports of 894.5 thous. MWh (+40% mom). There were no electricity exports.
• As of February 14, 5.28 bn m³ of natural gas (available gas excluding technical gas) was stored in Ukraine’s underground gas storage facilities, which is 22% less mom.
• Since its launch in 2023, Ukraine’s sea corridor has transported 173 m t of cargo, including over 103 m t of grain.
• In January, the railway transported 2.37 m t of grain toward ports and western border crossing points (+9% mom and -17% yoy).
• Exports were close to last year’s level, while imports increased markedly.
• Grants supported State budget revenues in January.
• Ukraine’s performance on the indicators under Ukraine Plan deteriorated, negatively affecting inflows of funds from the EU.
• In January, inflation slowed to 7.4% yoy, continuing the downward trend that started in June 2025.
• For the first time since March 2025, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) changed its policy rate, lowering it by 0.5 pp to 15% per annum.
