- Ending the war is the key event for 89.2% of respondents that will improve conditions for business.
- 34.8% of enterprises named the restoration and protection of the energy system as a key condition for improving the business climate — almost three times more than in August.
- Long-term uncertainty has significantly decreased, but among large enterprises — from 50% to 32%.
- The share of enterprises that increased production fell, but those planning growth in the next 3–4 months increased.
- The government's economic policy is assessed as mostly neutral, while the share of negative assessments has increased.
Business assessments indicate a decrease in uncertainty in the medium term, while current performance indicators and recovery dynamics remain under pressure from challenges related to the war.
This is evidenced by the results of the 45th monthly survey, which the IER conducted among 491 industrial enterprises in the second half of January — after the intensification of Russian attacks on civilian energy infrastructure.
Ending the war remains the key event that almost all respondents named as a change that will improve business conditions.
The figure of 89.2% has remained practically unchanged compared to August 2025 — then it also stood at 89%.
The protection and restoration of Ukraine's energy system rose to second place — 34.8%, which is almost three times more than in August 2025 (11.9%).
"Our survey fell in the midst of the bombing and destruction of the energy system and the heat supply system of large cities, which affects business, especially small business.
Compared to 2024, when Ukraine had its second significant blackout, the situation is worse now, but business either doesn't think so or is better prepared.
The current 34.8% is almost the same as in August 2024 — 34.5%," noted IER Executive Director Oksana Kuziakiv.
The issue of reservation of employees remains in third place — 26.7% of respondents believe that this would improve business conditions.
A year ago it was 23.9%.
Expected changes that will improve business conditions, %
Tax reduction dropped from second to fourth place — 24.8%.
Fewer enterprises chose among the options of expected changes financial assistance to affected businesses (16.8%), simplification of legislative requirements (15.9%), de-occupation of territories (15.9%), reduction of corruption (15.1%), and other measures.
The Business Activity Recovery Index (BARI) has a negative value for the first time since March 2023 — over the month the indicator deteriorated from 0.03 to -0.01.
The index value decreased for all groups of enterprises, it is lowest and negative for micro-business.
The Business Activity Recovery Index has deteriorated to a negative value
Capacity utilization compared to "pre-war times" is almost unchanged. The share of enterprises operating at full capacity increased from 5% to 6%, while those operating with a load of 75–99% decreased by 5 percentage points.
— to 55%. This happened due to an identical increase in the share of companies with a load of 50–74% — to 24%.
The Aggregated Manufacturing Outlook Index (AMOI) increased slightly — to 0.09 from 0.07 in December — due to improved production expectations against the background of a reduction in finished product stocks.
Capacity utilization decreased slightly
Uncertainty in the three-month perspective for exports decreased from 23.7% to 18.1%.
In the six-month perspective, uncertainty regarding the financial and economic situation at enterprises decreased from 26.6% to 16.5%, and regarding the general economic environment in the country — from 32.2% to 18.1%.
"Paradox: in conditions of a high level of danger and turbulence, uncertainty for business itself is falling," says Oksana Kuziakiv.
Long-term uncertainty decreased from 48.2% to 35.4%. This uncertainty decreased most significantly for large enterprises — from almost 50% to 32%.
Among those who were able to form a forecast, 85.2% do not expect significant changes in the enterprise's activities in a two-year perspective.
Only 12.5% expect improvement, and 2.3% — deterioration.
In production, current results are deteriorating, and expectations are improving. The share of enterprises that increased production volumes fell from 27.7% to 18.5%, while those planning to increase production in the next 3–4 months became more numerous — from 29.2% to 35.2%.
Similar "scissors" are also observed in exports, sales, and new orders: current results are becoming more modest, and forecasts are becoming more optimistic.
The average term of provision with new orders stabilized at 3.4 months.
"The share of enterprises with an order horizon of a year or more continues to decrease — from 7% in December to 4% in January.
But it is positive that the share of those working "on the fly", orders less than a month, did not increase — it decreased from 30% to 27%," said Oksana Kuziakiv.
The share of enterprises with orders for 1–2 months remained stable — 29%.
Businesses with orders for 3–5 months increased by a third — 20%.
Companies with orders for 6–11 months became slightly more numerous — from 19% to 20%.
There are no significant changes regarding prices. Business continues to expect an increase in prices for raw materials and finished products, but hopes that the rate of increase will be lower than before.
Only 33.4% of enterprises noticed an increase in prices for raw materials and materials, while fewer enterprises (44%) expect an increase in prices in the next 3 months.
A similar situation regarding finished products: 33.3% recorded price increases, and 43.5% expect an increase.
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Up to 500 Ukrainian industrial enterprises located in 21 out of 27 regions of Ukraine participate in the monthly New Monthly Enterprises Survey (#NRES) from the IER.
The survey has been conducted on a monthly basis since May 2022. The surveys are conducted within the framework of the project "Integration of Ukraine into the EU: a dialogue built on facts" with the support of the International Renaissance Foundation.
Video presentation of the January survey results – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AorHExrYShQ&t
All previous surveys since July 2022 – http://www.ier.com.ua/en/proekt_dilova_dumka/NRES_Presentations
