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  • “Industrial visa-free regime” could help increase Ukraine’s exports to the EU by 2.7%

    18.11.2025

    Despite the expansion of tariff quotas following the end of the EU’s Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs), Ukraine needs to begin seeking additional tools to stimulate exports. One such step is concluding the ACAA – the Agreement on Conformity Assessment and Acceptance of Industrial Products, often referred to as the “industrial visa-free regime”. This topic was recently discussed at the event “EU-Ukraine Trade: Market Access and Rules Integration”.

     

    The potential gain for Ukraine may range from 0.6% to 1.1% of exports to the EU compared to the baseline year 2024, if we sign the ACAA for three sectors. If the ACAA is signed for all sectors covered by the Association Agreement, the gain will triple — to 1.7–2.7%,” said Veronika Movchan, Academic Director at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER).

     

    The first three sectors identified for the ACAA are: low-voltage electrical equipment, electromagnetic compatibility, and machinery safety. Overall, the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement foresees the possibility of signing ACAA for 27 sectors.

     

    The ACAA will provide Ukraine with access to the EU market for goods in specific sectors without additional conformity assessment procedures. It envisions mutual recognition of conformity certificates — a certificate issued in Ukraine will be automatically recognized in the EU. This should simplify and reduce the cost of exports, as companies will no longer need to undergo repeated assessments in European bodies.

     

    Currently, “3-ACAA” goods account for 12% of Ukraine’s exports to the EU, while “27-ACAA” goods — including construction materials — account for 32%. At the same time, 74% of all Ukrainian exports within the “27-ACAA” pool are already supplied to the EU.

     

    “ACAA is a unique agreement because a country effectively agrees to adopt EU norms, rules, institutions, and procedures as its own. For Ukraine, this is entirely logical, especially now as we talk about EU membership: this process naturally fits into the broader path toward full integration into the European Union,” added Veronika Movchan.

     

    According to a joint assessment by IER and the German Economic Team (GET), the end of the ATMs will reduce Ukraine’s annual exports to the EU by $1.144 billion, even despite the EU expanding certain tariff quotas. However, thanks to redirecting trade flows to other regions, total export losses will decrease to $253 million, or 0.6% of exports.

     

    To sign the ACAA, Ukraine must achieve compliance with EU norms and procedures in five areas of quality infrastructure:

    • Standardization
    • Metrology
    • Accreditation
    • conformity assessment
    • market surveillance

     

    Currently, the EU has an ACAA only with Israel, and has offered similar agreements to several other countries, including Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco, and Jordan.

     

    “In addition to the direct increase in export volumes, the ACAA means easier access to the EU market for new products and new companies. For small and medium-sized enterprises, this is especially important because they cannot benefit from economies of scale the way large companies can,” summarized Veronika Movchan.

     

    Anne Bercio, Deputy Head of the GIZ STEP IN 2 EU programme, believes that in 2026 the ball will be in Ukraine’s court when it comes to preparing for the ACAA. “This is not just a matter of harmonizing and translating certain standards; it also requires Ukraine to accelerate many reforms that still need to be implemented,” noted Anne Bercio.

     

    Michael Emerson, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), drew attention to the latest European Commission report on Ukraine’s progress toward EU membership. “Ukraine aims to join the EU by 2028. Based on the details of the enlargement report and the level of progress over the past year, 2028 currently seems rather optimistic. For now, I would speak about 2030 (in terms of Ukraine meeting the accession criteria — Ed.),” said Michael Emerson.

     

    The event was held within the project “Assessing the Economic Impact of Adapting EU Law in Key Sectors of Ukraine’s Economy”, supported by the European Union and the International Renaissance Foundation as part of the joint initiative “Joining the EU Together”.

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