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  • Without the “transport visa-free regime”, the Ukrainian economy would have lost $13–26 billion in 2022–2024 – IER and GET estimate

    17.11.2025

    On 25 September 2025, Ukraine and the EU extended the special “transport visa-free regime” until 31 March 2027.

     

    This means that bilateral and transit freight transport between Ukraine and the EU will continue to operate without the need to obtain permits. This topic was recently discussed at the event “Ukraine–EU Trade: Between Market Access and Regulatory Integration”. “For businesses, this means predictable routes, reduced administrative delays, and more efficient fleet planning,” said Iryna Kosse, Leading Research Fellow at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER).

     

    This is crucial, as road transport has become the key channel for 63% of Ukraine’s trade with the EU due to the war. In 2024, road transport accounted for 45% of Ukrainian exports to the EU ($11.1 billion) and 75% of imports ($26.9 billion).

     

    “The road corridor has become a backbone channel for high-value and time-sensitive goods — various components, consumer goods, FMCG, fuel, etc. In 2024, the value of road trade with the EU reached $38 billion, which is 20% more than in 2021,” Kosse added.

     

    The “transport visa-free regime” has supported trade during wartime and helped overcome the “permit ceiling” at the border. IER together with GET estimated that the absence of this regime could have resulted in cumulative losses of $13.3–26 billion in 2022–2024. “The regime will remain in force as long as we do not trigger the safeguard brake. The cost of a mistake is billions in our export–import flows,” warned Kosse.

     

    Key parameters of the extended “transport visa-free regime”:

     

    •         Cabotage in the EU is prohibited, and cross-trade outside the agreement is governed by separate rules.
    •         Drivers must carry a full set of documents (CMR, assignment order, invoices, insurance, proof of empty return) and a special sticker.
    •         Vehicles of Euro 5 class and above operate without permits.
    •         The “safeguard clause” remains in place — any EU member state may temporarily suspend the regime on its territory in case of serious imbalances.

     

    “No EU member state has applied this safeguard clause. But the very existence of such a mechanism means that any abuses or mass violations increase the risk of targeted restrictions,” Kosse explained.

     

    According to the expert, starting from 1 July 2026, all new trucks must be equipped with smart tachographs, which will be checked at the border. Ukraine will also introduce EU standards for transport operators’ business reputation and managerial qualifications. Full documentary compliance remains mandatory.

     

    Ukraine plans to expand its road connections with the EU. “The government is working to increase capacity. The first Polish motorway already reaches the Krakivets–Korczowa checkpoint. Poland is also building two more motorways to the Yahodyn and Rava-Ruska checkpoints. On the Ukrainian side, we are currently focusing on the road to Yahodyn, which will be upgraded in the coming years to a high-speed highway with four lanes. And we are seeking financing to launch the construction of a motorway from Lviv to Krakivets,” said Deputy Finance Minister Oleksandr Kava at the event.

     

    The event took place within the project “Assessing the Economic Impact of Adapting EU Law in Key Sectors of Ukraine’s Economy”, supported by the European Union and the International Renaissance Foundation as part of the joint initiative “Joining EU Together”.

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