Summary
- According to the Ukrstat, real GDP in Q2 2025 grew by 0.7% yoy (yoy).
- According to IER estimate, real GDP growth slowed to 1.2% yoy in September. Real GDP in Q3 2025 is estimated to have grown by 2.6% yoy.
- Massive russian shelling of the power system in early October led to the introduction of hourly outage schedules in the Chernihiv region and emergency outages throughout Ukraine.
- In September, Ukraine increased electricity exports by 41% mom to 635 thousand MWh.
- Russia's massive shelling of Kharkiv and Poltava regions on October 3 knocked out about 60% of the country's gas production.
- In September, Ukrzaliznytsia transported 2.2 m tons of grain cargo, a decrease of 21% mom and 19% yoy.
- Ukraine and the EU extended the Agreement on the Liberalization of Road Freight Transportation until March 31, 2027.
- Imports approached their July high in September, while exports were held back by lower harvests and export duties.
- The financial needs for 2026 remain high.
- In September, annual inflation slowed down again to 11.9% yoy, thanks, among other things, to cheap vegetables.
- The NBU unanimously kept the discount rate at 15.5% per annum in September, and most participants in the monetary policy meeting expect a rate cut this year.
