New EU market access conditions are expected to reduce Ukraine’s exports to the European Union by USD 1.1 billion annually compared to 2024. The new market access regime, part of the review of mutual access under the Association Agreement, is set to take effect at the end of October.
A study conducted by Veronika Movchan, Research Director at the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER), and Riccardo Giucci, Managing Director of Berlin Economics, within the framework of the German Economic Team (GET) project, highlights the dual effect of the new trade regime.
Short-Term Shock vs. Long-Term Benefit
Compared to the temporary Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs), which provided mostly duty-free access from June 2022 to June 2025, the new tariff quotas will lead to a sharp drop in exports.
Analysts estimate that Ukraine’s exports to the EU will decrease by USD 1,144 million per year compared to 2024 levels. The main reason for these losses is the sharp expected decline in wheat exports, projected to fall by USD 894 million annually, accounting for four-fifths of the total reduction in exports to the EU. Exports of sugar, barley, poultry meat, eggs, apple juice, and honey will also be negatively affected.
However, compared to the old tariff quotas that were in place before June 2022 and reinstated in June 2025, the new scheme represents significant trade liberalization.
Four tariff quotas have been completely eliminated, while 26 have been expanded. The most significant increases apply to honey, sugar, barley groats, and bran. This liberalization offers potential duty-free export expansion of USD 630 million per year, or 35% compared to previous conditions, and could save up to USD 165 million annually in import duties.
These new tariff quotas are permanent and will influence long-term investment decisions, unlike the temporary ATMs.
Reorientation Beyond the EU to Reduce Overall Losses
Although Ukraine’s exports to the EU will suffer, Ukrainian exporters are expected to redirect excess volumes to non-EU markets. The estimated annual decline of USD 1,144 million in exports to the EU will be partially offset by USD 891 million in redirected exports to other destinations.
As a result, the estimated annual decline in Ukraine’s total exports will be more moderate—USD 253 million. The losses are mainly due to:
- Higher transportation costs, particularly for shipping wheat outside the EU.
- Lower prices on alternative markets for products such as poultry meat, sugar, and apple juice.
Overall, the total reduction is equivalent to 0.6% of Ukraine’s total exports in 2024.
