Key takeaways:
➢ In April 2025, business optimism improved in the long-term perspective.
➢ The average duration of new orders declined to 4.9 months.
➢ Labor shortages due to conscription and/or staff emigration remain the top obstacle to doing business, but this issue was reported by the fewest respondents in six months.
➢ Power supply disruptions in April were a problem for only 6% of businesses.
➢ Just 4% of entrepreneurs rated the government’s economic activity positively.
Amid discussions of a potential pause in hostilities, long-term business expectations improved. At the same time, uncertainty in the 6-month outlook began to grow, and although expectations remain optimistic, they have somewhat weakened. These are the results of the 36th monthly survey conducted by the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) among 478 industrial enterprises.
The Business Recovery Index (BRI) remained relatively stable in April, at 0.13 compared to 0.12 in March. The best dynamics were shown by large enterprises, which continued to lead in recovery pace.
“All this is happening against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical turbulence affecting the war's outlook — the key non-economic factor influencing Ukrainian business and the economy,” said Oksana Kuziakiv, Executive Director of IER. “This survey is a milestone: the first monthly wave was conducted in May 2022. We now have three full years of data and can start removing seasonality, which will make the findings more accurate and internationally comparable.”
Over a two-year horizon, business optimism improved significantly — the Industrial Confidence Indicator rose from 0.11 to 0.15. This was due to a decline in the share of businesses planning to downsize (from 3.4% to 1.4%) and a rise in those planning to expand (from 14% to 16.2%). Still, 82.4% of respondents expect no change.
Production indicators showed improvement in current trends, while expectations remained stable. The share of enterprises increasing output rose to 26.2% in April (from 20.1% in March). The share planning to boost production in the next 3–4 months remained virtually unchanged, from 40.5% to 40.8%.
Export performance reached its highest level since the start of the war, as the index of export expectations increased from 0.1 in March to 0.23 in April. This was due to a decline in businesses reporting export decreases (from 13.4% to 8.7%) and an increase in those reporting export growth (from 19.9% to 25.4%).
Expectations for new orders remain cautious, as the share of businesses with order portfolios longer than one year has declined from 20% to 16%.
“After peaking at 7.9 months in August–September last year — when companies received long-term contracts — the average duration of new orders has steadily decreased, dropping from 5.5 to 4.9 months in April,” noted Oksana Kuziakiv. The most extended contracts are found in the woodworking and chemical industries.
Input and raw material prices are rising more slowly. The share of companies reporting price increases dropped by seven percentage points to 24.5%. Those expecting further increases in the next three months fell by 1.5 points to 31.3%.
A similar trend was observed in finished goods prices: only 26.7% of respondents reported rising prices (down 5.8 points), while 32% expect future increases (down 3.8 points).
The labor shortage issue remains relevant: the share of companies struggling to find skilled workers rose slightly to 47.8% (+1.8 pp), and unskilled workers to 36.3% (+0.2 pp).
Nevertheless, labor shortages due to conscription and/or employee emigration remain the top wartime obstacle.
“The absolute figure for this obstacle fell by 8 percentage points to 57%. This is no longer a random fluctuation but a sign of actual improvement,” said Yevhen Angel, senior researcher at IER. This is the lowest level since October 2024, when the figure was also 57%.
The top three business obstacles remained unchanged. In second place was the issue of unsafe working conditions (up 1 point to 54%), while concern over rising prices for raw materials, goods, and inputs decreased (down 5 points to 43%). Fewer businesses also mentioned declining demand for products or services (down 4 points to 28%).
“The power supply situation has improved to the point where electricity outages are almost nonexistent for businesses. As a result, this obstacle has dropped in the rankings. In April, only 6% of respondents cited ‘interruptions in electricity, water, or heat supply’ — placing it ninth on the list of obstacles,” said Yevhen Angel. This is the lowest figure since September 2022 (4%).
Assessments of the government's economic policy remain mostly neutral: 63% gave a neutral rating in April, 24% were negative, and positive ratings doubled to 4% compared to March. Around 9–10% of respondents consistently cannot form an opinion.
The monthly New Monthly Enterprises Survey (#NRES) by IER includes around 500 industrial enterprises across 21 of Ukraine’s 27 regions. The survey has been conducted monthly since May 2022.
📺 Video presentation of April survey results (Ukrainian language):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3H0_5S35b8
📃Presentation: http://www.ier.com.ua/files/Projects/2025/NRES/_NRES_April_25_eng.pdf
📊 All past surveys since July 2022:
http://www.ier.com.ua/en/proekt_dilova_dumka/NRES_Presentations
