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  • COVID-19 3rd wave is the worst so far, that started in October. Reason - low vaccination


    We have 26-28k new daily registered cases. Moreover, 1/3 of tests are positive, which is really high – thus, we do not know how many people actually are infected. Deaths: 700 per day on average. It is the 3rd largest level in the world (after US and Russia).

    “Red” zone and lockdown introduced, but these days it is different: restrictions apply to those who do not have vaccination certificate or negative PCR tests result. You cannot move between regions, attend mass events, visit restaurant. It created demand for vaccines.

    After deficit of vaccines in Spring, supply in summer was stable. However, vaccination levels were disastrously low.

    Why? Reason:

    1) Vaccination of priority groups was not done efficiently

    2) Vax-scepticism – even now, around half of the population (those who have not vaccinated yet) does not want to vaccinate.

    The major issue – is how to convince those.

    There is some public campaign happening, but politicians follow public opinion, and do not actively promote vaccination. Although, in the last days we have spike in vaccination due to lockdown. Hopefully it will help mitigate the harm of corona, at least in terms of death rates.

    What about economy? 

    The rebound of Ukraine's economy has been slower than initially expected, partly due to the low vaccination rates. According to the NBU, in 2021, the country lost about 0.8 percentage points in the real GDP growth due to the Covid-19. Other adverse shocks, including high global energy prices and insufficient reform efforts, contributed to the slow economic recovery. As a result, Ukraine's GDP is estimated to grow by 3.1% in 2021, compared to a 3.8% initial forecast. 

    One of the main drivers for the economic growth in 2021 is agriculture, featuring another record-high harvest thanks to good weather conditions and improved productivity and benefititng from exceptionally high global prices. 

    At the same time, industry has continued muddling through, with a growth rate below 2%. Consumer inflation acceletaed in 2021 to 9.0% year on year in September, and the NBU has already started increasing their policy rate to curb the price growth. However, high global prices supported external trade (agriproducts, metal + record harvest this year), especially goods exports expected to reach record-high USD 80 bn in 2021. 

    In 2022, the real GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 3.6-3.8%. Still, there are more downside risks and uncertainties that can further undermine Ukraine's economic recovery. 

    Economy is growing, but will not enough to get back to the level before 2019.

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