According to our baseline scenario real GDP in 2017 is forecasted to growth by 2.6% due to further increase in domestic demand. We expect consumer sentiment and business confidence to continue improving in 2018. Reforms introduced in 2014-2017 are expected to reduce friction in the economy. However, political instability will likely remain a challenge while war in the Donbas and conflict with Russia will likely remain a drag on economy. Global economic growth is also expected to remain moderate. As a result, real GDP is forecasted to increase by 3.4% in 2018.
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