The Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) conducted first issue of the Monthly Enterprises Survey "Ukrainian business during the wartime" for the period of April-May 2022. The aim of the project is rapid collection of information on the current economic state at the enterprise level.
The results of the survey showed positive business expectations for production and employment in the short-term period whereon high level of uncertainty of the environment, in which enterprises operate, exists.
In particular, 32.2% of enterprises plan to increase production in the next 1-2 months, and 15.9% expect employment growth. Expectations for the six-month outlook are also positive: the share of “optimists” (40%) prevails over the share of “pessimists” (30,6%).
At the same time, 70% of the interviewed enterprises report a reduction in production (this is twice more than in the pre-war period), and 10% of the interviewed enterprises stopped their activities. The percentage of those who reported a reduction in employment was 57.8% that was smaller than those who reported a reduction in production.
In addition to the drop in production, another significant indicator of the war impact is the uncertainty of the economic situation in Ukraine. Nearly half of respondents were unable to give a forecast on changes in the financial and economic situation (45,0%) and on overall economic situation (47,7%).
Among the main problems that enterprises faced during the war were the shortage of fuel, prices increase on raw materials and commodities, difficulties with goods transportation across the territory of Ukraine, decreased demand for products or services and shortage of labour force.
Surveys are conducted using the Business Tendency Survey, which is based on a generalization of the judgments and expectations of the main economic agents - entrepreneurs and business leaders about the situation in their company. The field phase of the first survey took place from April 28 to May 7, 2022. Enterprises compared the situation in April 2022 with March 2022, or (where indicated) with the pre-war period (up to February 24, 2022). Respondents gave forecasts for the next 1-2 months of operation of enterprises.
