After a pause, we are back to release our macroeconomic forecast publicly.
We project real GDP to fall by 5.9% in 2020. Consumer inflation is forecasted to accelerate only to 7.5% yoy in December as weak demand will limit the impact of higher inflation expectations and weaker hryvnia.
This forecast was done during great uncertainty and thus may become irrelevant in a matter of weeks if not days. Still, we believe it a useful exercise that may help guide economic policy and business decisions.
