In the new monthly issue of the MEFU No.3 (102):
We expect to revise 2016 real GDP growth forecast down to 1-1.5%. This reflects adjustments related to release of 2015 GDP and effects of recent exchange rate volatility on domestic demand. Political instability remains a source of downward risk for the forecast. While moderate amounts of political infighting are part of our base scenario, long-term political crisis may be more damaging as it may hurt confidence, delay reform agenda and derail cooperation with international donors.