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  • New issue of Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine No.9 (84)

    01.10.2014

    In the new quarterly issue of the MEFU No.9 (84) "Rough times ahead":

    Military conflict in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (Donbas) continued in September, with increasingly disastrous impact on Donbas economy. In particular, many companies stopped operation in or near the conflict zone, while some companies in other regions also terminated their activity due to logistic and supply problems. Our revised forecast is based on the assumption that the unrest in the Eastern part of Ukraine will calm down by the end of 2014 and the full-scale war with Russia will not start. However, economic activity in Donbas will remain depressed in the end of 2014 and in 2015 due to continued instability. Under such assumptions real GDP is expected to decline by 7.6% in 2014 and 2.2% in 2015. It should be noted that such drop in GDP next year represents significant improvement of economic activity as compared to the second half of 2014 and we expect that most regions of Ukraine will be able to increase their output in the 2015.

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    Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine is a regular publication of the Institute, which includes the forecast of GDP and its components, fiscal indicators, balance of payments, inflation, exchange rate for the current and following years.

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