In the new monthly issue of the MEFU No.7 (82):
In the second half of 2014 we expect economic downturn to deepen due to prolonged conflict in Eastern Ukraine and related damage to infrastructure. Fiscal tightening approved to comply with IMF program will also impact economic activity. Real GDP may fall by 6-7% yoy in the second half of the year after real GDP fell by 3% yoy between January and June. Exchange rate will appreciate slightly after conflict ends in the Eastern Ukraine.
In 2015 we project higher than previously expected economic growth reflecting low statistical base (i.e. resumption of suspended economic activity in late 2014) and reconstruction in Eastern Ukraine. Increased exports and investment from demand side will also support recovery.
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Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine is a regular publication of the Institute, which includes the forecast of GDP and its components, fiscal indicators, balance of payments, inflation, exchange rate for the current and following years.
