In the new quarterly issue of the MEFU No.3 (78):
Economic and political situation in Ukraine became even more unstable in the end of March and beginning of April. Russian annexation of Crimea and Russian-provoked unrest in the EasternUkraine, make Ukraine’s future highly uncertain. This is the main risk for our forecast in 2014. We discuss possible consequences of Russia’s actions in a separate subchapter.
We calculate our forecast for the whole Ukraine including Crimea. We also assume that continental Ukraine will remain under control of Kyiv authorities and the unrest in the Eastern part of Ukraine will calm down within a month and the war with Russia will not start. Besides, our estimate of economic growth in 2014 is based on the assumption that the reform program coordinated with the IMF, the EU and other donors will be implemented. As a result, Ukraine will receive substantial loans for both budget and balance of payment purposes. Under these conditions we project that real GDP will decline by 3.5% in 2014.
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Macroeconomic Forecast Ukraine is a regular publication of the Institute, which includes the forecast of GDP and its components, fiscal indicators, balance of payments, inflation, exchange rate for the current and following years.
