We have already passed the "bottom" of the fall. We will get "plus" in the basic scenario in 2010 despite all the problems. GDP growth will be triggered by the economic activity of the metallurgists, the chemists, and in agriculture.
Over the recent past, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has implemented a number of administrative measures in an attempt to regulate the foreign exchange market. It seems the authorities wanted to pursue several goals at the same time, like closing loopholes for currency speculation and decreasing the level of dollarisation. The underlying motive for these measures, however, seems to be an attempt to support the exchange rate of the hryvnia.
The Ukrainian-Russian gas crises in January 2009 demonstrated an urgent need to secure gas transits through Ukraine. Although both parties eventually signed agreements that regulate Ukrainian gas import as well as transit of Russian gas through Ukraine, the underlying conflict is far from being resolved. Most importantly, the difficult technical state of Ukraine’s Gas Transit System (GTS) and the urgent need for investments impose severe risks as they endanger the reliability of the system and thus, of gas transits through Ukraine.
The global financial crisis has become today a challenge for both national economies and modern system of global and regional economic policy coordination in various fields. The severity and scope of the crisis require politicians and government officials fast and fairly radical actions to minimize the effects of global crisis and create conditions for economic recovery.